Central Asia's former Soviet states are now back in Moscow's orbit, for starters, depriving the CIA of friendly staging grounds.
Appeals from
Afghanistan’s last standing resistance leaders for U.S. support are
almost certainly going to fall on deaf ears in Washington, longtime observers
say. Even if the U.S. and its NATO allies had a deep desire to re-engage the
Taliban on the battlefield—which they don’t—the new political landscape across
Central Asia essentially forbids it.
Earlier this
week Afghanistan’s self-proclaimed Acting President Amrullah Saleh, who
fled to the northern Panjshir Valley, appealed for Western aid via
Twitter, saying he was “reaching out to all leaders to secure their support and
consensus.” At about the same time, Ahmad Massoud, 32, son of the
legendary anti-Soviet resistance leader and “Lion of the Panjshir” Ahmad Shah Massoud, took to the opinion page of The Washington Post to say he couldn’t hold out much longer without foreign
support.
Ahmad
Massoud rallying supporters (Reuters)
“The mujahideen resistance
to the Taliban begins now. But we need help,” the headline said.
“The United States
and its allies have left the battlefield, but America can still be a ‘great
arsenal of democracy,’ as Franklin D. Roosevelt said when coming to the aid of the beleaguered British before
the U.S. entry into World War II,” Massoud wrote. “To that end, I entreat
Afghanistan’s friends in the West to intercede for us in Washington and in New
York, with Congress and with the Biden administration. Intercede for us in
London, where I completed my studies, and in Paris, where my father’s memory
was honored this spring by the naming of a pathway for him in the
Champs-Élysées gardens.”
But Western powers
no longer have the benefit of Central Asian strongmen who gave comfort and aid
to the CIA when it arrived in October 2001 to topple the Taliban, some seven
weeks after the elder Massoud was assassinated by Al Qaeda agents posing as Belgian journalists.
After the
dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the CIA gradually built up a robust
base in nearby Dushanbe, Tajikistan’s capital. In 2001 the agency also had a
strong (if odious) local ally in Uzbek warlord Abdul Rashid Dostum, who teamed
up with CIA paramilitary officers and Green Berets to rout the Taliban. Last
weekend, Dostum vowed to fight on after
his troops sold out and surrendered to the Taliban—but from exile in
Uzbekistan. Also in the 1990s and onward, the notorious Russian arms
dealer Viktor Bout was also in his Tajikistan homeland supplying the elder
Massoud’s Northern Alliance with guns and ammo, perhaps paid for with CIA cash.
But he’s gone, too: Since 2012 he’s been serving a 25-year sentence in a U.S. federal prison for illegal arms trafficking to
terrorist enemies of the West.
And today, the former Soviet central Asia republics are practically off limits to the CIA, at least as staging grounds for a resistance to the Taliban. While the U.S. was struggling to nation-build in Afghanistan for the past 20 years, Moscow was busy rebuilding its political and military presence across the region. It views Central Asia “as part of its privileged sphere of influence,” the Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote last year, explaining Russia’s “military buildup” across the ‘Stans. It also hardly needs saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin, helping spur political chaos in the U.S. the past several years, has no interest in aiding Washington anywhere, especially in regions where he’s worked hard to reclaim Moscow’s sway.
Putin
“will never let the CIA into Tajikistan to arm a rebellion,” says Robert Baer,
a former CIA officer who was stationed in Dushanbe in the 1990s. “They could do
it themselves,” Baer tells SpyTalk,
but “right now they’re taking the Taliban’s temperature.” Some say Putin might
even consider taking out the younger Massoud, as a favor to the Taliban, whom
it has a strong interest in cultivating as another arena to diminish America’s
standing.
The CIA does not
comment on covert action.
U.S. relations with
Pakistan, meanwhile, which gave shelter to the Taliban and Al Qaeda for
decades, have been frosty for years, and can only worsen now. China, Iraq and
Iran look eager to come to terms with the new rulers of Kabul. Increasingly
Islamist Turkey, too, cannot be counted on to help Washington undermine the
Taliban.
Rearming a
resistance is just a nonstarter, no matter how painfully hearts may be breaking
in Washington.
Amrullah Saleh, meanwhile, the former Afghan intelligence chief who claims to have inherited the presidency after Ashraf Ghani’s flight into exile in the UAE, has just lost a key channel to rally supporters.
On
Thursday, Saleh’s Twitter account appeared to have been disabled—whether by
Twitter or other parties could not be learned.
“Something went
wrong,” came the automated Twitter response to several clicks on his account. “Try reloading.”
We did. It still didn’t work.
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