Monday, July 25, 2016
Nate Silver-Trump Has 285 Electoral Votes Updated July 26,16
First, of all it is just my impression but Utah seems to be a strange voting state.
There are very interesting numbers coming out of Utah; on 12 July Trump had the lead in Utah with 29%; Hillary had 27% and Johnson the Libertarian had 26%!!!!!!!!
This seems to be confirmation that Johnson and Stein are sucking votes from Clinton and Trump. It seems to be effecting Hillary more than Trump.
Trump’s popularity with Republican and Republican leaners, meanwhile, has spiked since he wrapped up the Republican nomination. Gallup peggedTrump’s favorable rating at just 58 percent with Republicans on the day of the Indiana primary (May 3). Now, it’s 72 percent. That’s still not great; John McCain’s favorable rating at this point in 2008 was 89 percent among Republicans in Gallup’s polling. But as Trump has improved his image on the right and Clinton has failed to improve hers on the left, they now find themselves in the same spot.
Earlier today, the Watchman had Trump with 250 electoral votes but I did not have statistics for some small states. Trump was trending up.
Johnson was having an impact; I see Johnson taking votes from Hillary. Johnson has 7% in Fl, Missouri, NC and Oh.; 9% in PA.; 6% in NY; 10% in VA and Utah and 8% in Kansas.
Famed statistician, Nate Silver, has for the first time predicted that Donald Trump will become the next President of the United States.
Silver, in his “Now-cast” election model says that if ballots were cast today, Trump has a 57.5% chance of winning. Clinton has only a 42.5% chance.
Silver originally gained fame predicting probable performance levels of baseball players. Subsequently he started predicting the outcomes of political contests on his website named simply 538 – the number of electors in the electoral college.
In 2008, Silver predicted the winner of the presidential vote in 49 of 50 states, and the winners of every US Senate race.
In 2012, Silver got all states correct. In February 2016, Silver predicted that Donald Trump had a 46% chance of winning Iowa and Ted Cruz had only a 39% chance. That’s probably the way an honest vote would have turned out.
Silver’s model shows Trump taking the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. That would give Trump 285 electoral votes – 15 more than the 270 needed.
Until recently, Silver’s model gave Clinton an 80% chance of winning. Click the link below.