Will Israel Attack Iran

Reports have surfaced again concerning a possible Israeli strike on Iran. This conjecturing has been going on since mid-2008. Some analysts speculated that Israel would attack before Barack Obama was inaugurated in January but that never happened.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) predicted in February 2009 that Iran will possess its first nuke in 2009. Iran will have enough enriched uranium to make a single nuclear weapon later this year. The window for Israel to strike a non-nuclear Iran is closing.

In February 2009 US intelligence sources revealed Israel has launched a covert war against Iran. Israel is using hit men, sabotage, front companies and double agents to disrupt the regime's nuclear weapons project. The most dramatic element of the "decapitation" program is the planned assassination of top figures involved in Iran's atomic operations.

This month a Washington think-tank reported that ballistic missiles could be Israel's weapon of choice against Iranian nuclear facilities in a pre-emptive attack. Some in Israel feel air strikes are too risky. Israel has Jericho missiles capable of hitting Iran with an accuracy of a few dozen yards from target. Jericho’s are equipped with a 1,650 lb conventional warhead. Israel’s warplanes allegedly have drawbacks. Israeli jets are limited in fuel and ordnance. More importantly an air mission endangers Israeli pilots, one of tiny Israel’s chief assets. That said, I offer the caveat that Israel may have some other type of secret weapon to strike Iran with or Israel could launch a blended attack using jets and ballistic missiles.

Some military analysts believe about 50 missiles would be enough to destroy Iran's core nuclear sites at Natanz, Esfahan and Arak. However, it seems to me if Israel attacks these three sites Israel also needs to attack Iran’s critical army, air force and navy nodes in order to prevent a counter-attack or a prolonged war. I would speculate that the attack would last at least a week or two and demolish Iran’s military utterly.

Only the United States and Russia are known to have satellites capable of spotting ballistic missile launches in real time, so the Iranians would be almost blind to an Israeli ballistic missile attack.

An Israeli defense consultant played down the idea of ballistic missiles being used for conventional attacks. He said, "You look at any major Western military, and you'll see that such strikes are the purview of manned warplanes, while ballistic missiles are reserved for nuclear-strike scenarios." This is true but Israel could use tactical nuclear weapons not strategic nuclear weapons. Keep in mind the Israelis have vowed “Never Again” to a holocaust.

One thing is for certain, if Israel decides to attack Iran she must make every attempt to neutralize or destroy Iran’s Shihab missiles. It is believed that Israel's Arrow II missile interceptor could do the job. However, I suspect a few missiles would get through and hit Israel like some of the 40 Scuds Saddam launched during the 1991 Gulf War. Those Scuds carried conventional warheads. It is unlikely that Iran could launch missiles chemical or biological warheads.

Iran is taking military measures to ward off the threat of an attack on its nuclear facilities. Iran has tripled the number of long-range rockets in its arsenal. Iran possessed 30 Shihab-3 missiles at the beginning of 2008, now Iran claims to have over 100 over long-range missiles capable of hitting Israel.

S-300 missiles also complicate Israel’s potential response. If Israel attacks Iran by air then it would likely be before the S-300 SAMs arrive and are operable in Iran. Russia's S-300 air-defense system can shoot down both invading planes and ballistic missiles.

In the summer of 2008 Iran held a massive missile exercise during which it claimed to have launched an improved version of the Shihab-3, known to have a range of 1,300 kilometers. The Iranian Fars News Agency Web site reported that the Shihab-3 had recently been equipped with an advanced guidance system that significantly improves the missile's accuracy and can correct its flight plan in midair.

The Islamic Republic has had the ability to strike any point in Israel for a long time but Iran’s latest build-up of missiles points to Iranian intent to launch a protracted counter-strike against those who seek to destroy its nuclear program.

If Iran retaliates another problem is that Israel’s air bases are near its cities and the Shihab’s would cause civilian casualties.

Some experts believe the Iranian targets are too distant for Israel, dispersed and too fortified for Israel's warplanes to destroy. Israel’s pilots bombed Iraq’s nuclear reactor in 1981 and bombed Syria's nuclear site in 2007 and so there is precedence for an air strike. However, some of the Iranian nuclear facilities are underground and hardened.

In December 2008 the Israelis procured new bomb technology that allows Israel's jet fighter pilots to strike an enemy country without leaving friendly airspace. We military types call such weapons “stand-off” systems.

It is called the Joint Direct Munitions-Extended Range (JDAM-ER), and essentially takes a dumb bomb and turns it into a smart bomb.

Among the modifications is the addition of a set of folding wings that extend the range to more than three times the range of a baseline JDAM, or Mk-84 2000-pound bomb, reportedly increasing the range from 15 to some 55 nautical miles.

Another modification converts existing unguided bombs into bombs directed to their targets using GPS technology. Even before the JDAM is released, it begins to receive data while still attached to the computer inside the aircraft.

Upon release, a satellite then guides the bomb to its target. The aircraft and crew then don't have to remain in enemy territory or "ride the bomb down" to its target. This enhanced capability allows the bomb to hit its target accurately regardless of weather conditions, day or night.

The ER kit can be installed in the field to existing JDAM weapons. For Israel, the ER version of the JDAM also is seen as giving Israel a longer-range capability of striking Iranian nuclear sites. Pilots could release the bombs in a “stand off” mode and avoid Iranian anti-aircraft defense missiles. The Israeli version is said to be capable of using laser guidance as well as standard GPS. The Israeli version of the JDAM also is protected against electronic jamming. Israel recently upgraded its F-15 fleet to carry the JDAMs.

Iran’s Sunni neighbors would not shed a tear if Iran were taken out. The King of Jordan and the royal family in Saudi Arabia fear the Shi’a regional power. They view the Iranian regime as a threat to Sunnis in the region. A nuclear Iran threatens the stability of every Sunni Arab government in the Middle East and would likely cause Arab governments to enter into a nuclear arms race with Iran. The Saudi Arabians certainly have the money to purchase a bomb from A.Q. Khan, another friendly regime or a rogue regime.

Another thing is for certain, the Iranian leadership will be as mad as hornets if attacked. An attack would set into play the “chaos” scenario the Iranians have been looking for in their eschatological view of the end of the world. They would be delighted spiritually because the return of their long-awaited Mahdi would be guaranteed.

How could Iran respond? Iran could declare war on Israel. Iranian clerics could issue a fatwa that would require call upon Muslims worldwide to fight a jihad against Israel. Iran could send its army into Iraq or Afghanistan to attack the Americans. Iran could strike U.S. Gulf assets and order attacks on Jewish targets abroad, focusing on soft targets. Iran could activate its terrorist moles that are in the U.S., the Middle East and Europe to conduct suicide attacks.

Iran, of course, has repeatedly threatened to counter an Israeli attack by closing the Strait of Hormuz, as well as launching missiles against the Ras Tanura Gulf oil terminal and bombarding the indispensable Saudi oil facility at Abqaiq, which is responsible for some 65 percent of Saudi production. Any one of these military options would immediately shut off 40% of all seaborne oil, 18% of global oil, and some 20% of America's daily consumption.

On 1 February 2009 Iran launched its first domestically made satellite into orbit. Now that Iran is capable of launching satellites, Iran could counter attack with Electro-magnetic pulse bombs(EMP). Three to five nuclear bombs of any size, launched into low-level space on satellites and detonated above the U.S. and Europe would shut down both continents indefinitely.

Iran has also undertaken a crash program to convert some 20% of its gasoline fleet yearly to compressed natural gas as a countermeasure to Western sanctions or an Israeli attack. Sanctions or an attack could completely block the flow of gasoline to Iran. At present Iran has no refining capability but it is planning to build refineries.