Watchman comment: Patriots, in my opinion, there is no way Killary is going to carry the conservative South and West, excluding California, Oregon and Washington.
Appearing on Fox Business with Lou Dobbs, Norpoth said his forecast confounded the poll numbers.
“I know that if you look at the polls right now that’s not what polls are saying, but polls are how people feel today and the election is not for another two and a half months,” said the Stoney Brook University professor.
Norpoth’s model has correctly predicted the outcome of the popular vote for every election since 1996, including the 2000 race where Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush took the presidency.
One of the factors the model takes into account is the unlikely scenario of an incumbent party remaining in power after two terms.
The accuracy of the model built by Norpoth stands at 96.1%, and works for every single presidential election going back to 1912, with the only exception being the 1960 contest, when John F. Kennedy narrowly defeated Richard Nixon. (Watchman comment: you will recall that Joe Kennedy bought and stole the vote in Cook County, Illinois, throwing the election to his son John.)
Norpoth’s confidence in Trump winning has slipped , when he predicted a 97% chance of a Trump victory, but his analysis still stands in stark contrast to the mainstream media narrative that the New York billionaire’s campaign is collapsing. Click the link below.