The latest polls have Netanyahu losing the election to
the combined parties of Yitzhak Herzog and Tzipi Livni by 3 to 4 seats.
However, winning the election is only step 1 in becoming Prime Minister. Step 2 is forming a realistic coalition of at
least 61 of the 120 Knesset seats.
In the latest
polls, the Zionist Camp, Bibi’s rival will end up with the most seats in the
Knesset. However 26 seats is just barely more than 20% of the seats. They will
need to find 35 more Knesset members to join with them.
Red circles are those likely or possible partners for Herzog. The two definite partners are Yesh Atid (center) and Meretz (far left). That brings the total to only 43 seats. Then, they would hope to woo in Koolanu, a center/right party focused solely on economic issues. This would bring them closer, but no cigar. They will still be 10 seats short.
Red circles are those likely or possible partners for Herzog. The two definite partners are Yesh Atid (center) and Meretz (far left). That brings the total to only 43 seats. Then, they would hope to woo in Koolanu, a center/right party focused solely on economic issues. This would bring them closer, but no cigar. They will still be 10 seats short.
The center/right
groups that remain will not join with them. Netanyahu has no interest in
sharing power or being the number 2 in the government. He will quit politics
before he relinquishes his premiership (He could make millions in speaking fees
in the U.S.). The Ultra Religious would go with the left if it were the only
option, but then Herzog would most likely lose Lapid’s secular Yesh Atid. Plus,
the orthodox would rather be with Bibi if they have a choice.
And they do, by the Orthodox not joining, Herzog and
Livni would have to take the unprecedented step of inviting Arab Knesset
members, many of whom hate Israel, hate Jews and support the PLO. Out of
desperation to form a government, Herzog and Livni have not ruled this out. But
the minute they bring in these anti-Israel parties, I am quite sure they will
lose Kooluna (8) and most likely, Yesh Atid (12) as well.
In other words,
the only way they can form a coalition is to include enemies of the state of
Israel and that just ain’t
gonna fly!
So, the President will call up Bibi and give him an
opportunity to form a collation. See those circled in red in the picture? Bibi
will, sadly, bring the Orthodox into his coalition, reversing the progress of
the last two years. Bennett’s Bayit Yehudi party will have to deal with this,
even though they were the ones (with Yesh Atid) who insisted that religious
serve in the army and get jobs. Yisrael Beytenu will join. Koolanu will as
well, provided that Bibi gives the FINANCE
Ministry to
their leader, Moshe Kahlon, along with great powers to make reforms (this is
good!).
Bibi stays PM
with 64 seats.
Wait! The only
potential stickler here is if Yachad, a new religious party that splintered
from Shas, doesn’t get past the 4 seat threshold. In the polls, they are right
on it. If they fall below they lose all their seats, Bibi’s loses those 4
partners. However, that 3.25% (4 seats) will be spread around to the other
parties, based on their own results, giving at least 2 seats, most likely, to
Bibi’s coalition—still keeping him at 62, with 1 seat to spare!
Having said all
that, about 12% of Israelis are still undecided. My personal opinion is that
Moshe Kahlon will be the recipient of many of those votes. Even his Kooluna party
winning 8 seats he is in the most powerful position. He is someone who could
serve with the right or the left, and neither group can form a coalition
without him, hence he is both red and yellow. If goes from 8 seats to 12 seats
by Tuesday, then his role as kingmaker will only be strengthened.
In fact he holds
all the cards. After the elections, he will probably be the first one that the
President calls. Once Kohlan decides whether he will go with Bibi or Herzog,
it’s over. Of course he will take his time, seeking as many concession for his
party as possible—which, in my opinion is good, as his party cares most about
fixing our economy, and all bets are that he choose Bibi.
And yet somehow,
I still believe that God is in control of this mess.
The president is not like the U.S.
president, but oversees procedures in the Knesset.
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