Wednesday, April 24, 2024

THE BALANCE OF POWER IN THE MIDDLE EAST HAS SHIFTED, A WATCHMAN SPECIAL REPORT, April 24, 2024

THE INFORMATION BELOW IS UNCLASSIFIED AND FROM OPEN SOURCES AND MATERIALS. IT IS ALSO BASED ON YOUR WATCHMAN'S 30 YEARS OF MILITARY AND DEFENSE EXPERIENCE AS A MIDDLE EAST ANALYST AND COUNTER-TERRORISM ANALYST.

Nero, "you know the thing" (above)!

Friends and patriots consider this. During and after the miraculous “Six-6 War of 1967” Israel was invincible. The Shah of Iran was Israel’s and America’s best friend, the Houthis in Yemen were not a Red Sea or Israel missile or drone threat, Hezbollah (founded in 1982) and Hamas (founded in 1987) did not exist, the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) was in its infancy, (having been formed in 1964) and Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Iraq were vanquished and neutralized. Now spring forward to April 2024. Israel’s invincibility is shattered. Israel is now surrounded by enemies, missiles and drones and her key ally, the U.S., has had its military strength diminished.

The perception that Israel is invincible has been shattered.

Sadly, it seems Netanyahu and the Zionist fanatics in his war cabinet and coalition are doing everything they can to destroy Israel’s good reputation.

In fact, the U.S. told Iran it could attack Israeli military bases as long as no civilians were killed.

Israel’s deterrence and domination is gone and this fits what the bible says. In the past Israeli officials said to its enemies if you strike Israel or its citizens you will pay 10 fold and they have done that in Syria, Egypt, Lebanon and Iraq, striking with impunity.

As you will see below, there is nothing at the present time that Israel can do to stop an Iranian attack. Iran’s purpose in attacking Israel was not to destroy Israel but to send a message that Iran is a “big boy” now and you, Israel, are no longer invincible.

The Gazan War has forced Israel to evacuate its citizens from northern and southern Israel. Think of the financial cost that is causing.

Consider this, if Israel loses its air superiority it is “Katie bar the door”!

I think Iran has made it very clear, via diplomacy and communiques, that it doesn’t want a war with the U.S. The U.S. is afraid to attack Iran because Iran and its proxies will flatten U.S. bases in Iraq, Syria, perhaps Jordan and possibly sink our ships in the Med, Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz.

An Israeli stands by an Iranian missile

THE IRANIAN ATTACK

There were three Primary Strategic Targets and several secondary targets aimed at Israeli Ballistic Missile Defense

1. Israeli Intelligence facility in the Golan Heights sustained serious damage. This facility collected on Syria and was involved in the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. The Israeli govt. has blacked out information about this attack.

2. Nevatim Air Base has X-band AN/TPY 2 radar that is the most powerful radar in the world and it is over the horizon radar. It monitors Iranian ballistic missile launches. It has been at Nevatim for over 10 years. It is linked to the U.S. ballistic Missile defense system and has connectivity to Peterson Space Force HQs in Colorado. It is also linked to the Arrow 2 and 3, David Sling, and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System (THAAD) missile system and the advanced Patriot System.

Nevatim is the most heavily defended air base in the world.

3. Iran also hit Ramon Air Base.

MYTH OF INVINCIBILITY

To repeat, Israel has been the big bully of the neighborhood since the 6 Day War in 1967.

The Israelis cannot allow Nevatim to be touched. It is specifically designed to defeat Iranian medium range ballistic missiles and the Iranians are aware of this fact.

Iran has evaluated Israeli and U.S. ability to detect and respond to their missile launches.

Iranian missiles, and for that fact missiles today, cannot fly on a plain trajectory with plain algorithms because they will be shot down.

Consequently, Iran uses separating warheads and multiple warheads on its missiles. The warheads separate from the launch missile. This requires U.S. and Israeli missile defense systems to discriminate the real warheads from decoys. So the Israeli missiles hit decoys and space debris. Finally the Iranian war heads change trajectory constantly especially at the last minute. If you watch the videos closely the orange warhead plunges to the Israeli target in the last minute. So Israeli and U.S. missile defenses can’t catch up. The missile defense systems are saturated and overwhelmed.

BOTTOM LINE

Israel did not intercept 99% of the Iranian ballistic missiles but they and the U.S. and U.K. did shoot down most of the drones and cruise missiles. Iran’s medium range ballistic missiles penetrated Israeli and U.S. missile defenses, and moreover these were Iran’s old missiles, not their top line missiles.

On April 14 Iranian missiles broke through the most sophisticated missile defense in the world.

Moreover, before the attack Iran gave the U.S., Jordan, Turkey and Iraq a 72 hour warning!

Five of 7 Iranian ballistic missiles hit Nevatim’s main runway center mass in 2 spots temporarily destroying the runway. However, if Iran had sent a swarm of ballistic missiles, let’s say 20 missiles; the runway would be permanently out of commission.

IRANIAN MESSAGE: WE CAN HIT NEVATIM ANY TIME WE WISH.

The Iranians also struck a warehouse and 3 other facilities center mass.

They also hit at least 2 Iron Dome systems by saturating them.

THE IRANIAN MESSAGE TO THE U.S. AND ISRAEL:

YOUR MISSILE DEFENSES DO NOT WORK AND THE NEXT TIME WE WILL OUND YOU HARD

IRANIAN STRIKE PACKAGE ROUGH ESTIMATE

U.S., U.K. & ISRAEL SHOT DOWN 80 DRONES OR UAVs OUT OF 170 DRONES

U.S. & ISRAEL SHOT DOWN 80 CRUISE MISSLES OUT OF 170

5 OF 7 Iranian MRBM struck the Nevatim target

32 Israelis were wounded

Iran did not use its best missiles, the Sejjil-3 and Shahab-3.

Netanyahu and the Zionists around him are desperate narcissistic socio-paths as is “Nero”. Netanyahu is driven by a Zionist war cabinet that wants to drag the U.S. into a war with Iran. Netanyahu’s far right coalition in Israel wants to hold on to political power. If it falls Netanyahu is finished and he might be arrested for past corruption.

Israel needs U.S. re-fueling aircraft help to conduct a deadly strike and Biden will not provide it because the November election is looming. In fact, if Biden starts a war with Iran he is gone in November.

NOTE: No modern American president has won re-election by turning his back on Israel and Biden is doing that now. Likewise no Israeli prime minister has won an election by turning his back on the U.S.

Well, why can’t Israel hit Iran with F-35Is? (photo above)

AGAIN THIS IS THE MYTH OF INVINCIBILITY. What if some F-35s are shot down and the pilots killed or captured? That would not be a good thing for Israel and the U.S.

Also Israel and the U.S. will not get over flight clearance from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Syria.

In order to do a major strike Israel will have to go alone on a predictable route. So the only option it seems is for the US and Israel to use cruise missiles or drones which what happened a few days ago.

What if the Iranian situation further escalates?

Do you remember when the truckers struck in Long Beach, CA. or the Colonial Pipeline? Gasoline prices sky rocketed.

THE ENERGY SECURITY OF THE WORLD IS AT STAKE IF THE IRANIANS SHUT DOWN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, WORLD ENERGY PRODUCTION AND CRITICAL PETROLEUM INFRASTRUCTURE WILL BE IMPACTED.

OTHER ITEMS OF INTEREST

The French could not handle the heat; their ships have left the Red Sea.

The Russians are now on the border of Lebanon and Israel;

This is not the Ezekiel 38-39 war.

U.S. strategic petroleum reserve is now down to a 17 day supply.

Last week gasoline jumped up .25 cents a gallon.

Israel cannot sustain long term military opns against Iran w/o U.S. help.

Unfortunately Israel is like the Titanic with nuclear weapons and now we see why Yeshua must step in to save Israel, He is the only One who can do it. Zechariah prophesies in chapter 13 (below) that 2/3 of the Jews will be killed. I believe the Messianic Jews in Israel are the true remnant who will survive the onslaught. Friends, we can’t do God’s work, it seems to me that 2/3 of the Jews in Israel are doomed as are most people in the world. Yeshua can’t return fast enough for me!

Crazy “war cabinet Zionists” want to drag the U.S. into a war with Iran.

⁶And one shall say unto him, What are these wounds in thine hands? Then he shall answer, Those with which I was wounded in the house of my friends.

⁷Awake, O sword, against my shepherd, and against the man that is my fellow, saith the Lord of hosts: smite the shepherd, and the sheep shall be scattered: and I will turn mine hand upon the little ones.

⁸And it shall come to pass, that in all the land, saith the Lord, two parts therein shall be cut off and die; but the third shall be left therein.

⁹And I will bring the third part through the fire, and will refine them as silver is refined, and will try them as gold is tried: they shall call on my name, and I will hear them: I will say, It is my people: and they shall say, The Lord is my God.