Influential Japanese lawmakers are pushing harder for Japan to
develop the ability to strike preemptively at the missile facilities of its
nuclear-armed neighbor.
Japan
has so far avoided taking the controversial and costly step of acquiring
bombers or weapons such as cruise missiles with enough range to strike other
countries, relying instead on its U.S. ally to take the fight to its enemies.
But
the growing threat posed by Pyongyang, including Monday's simultaneous launch
of four rockets, is adding weight to an argument that aiming for the archer
rather than his arrows is a more effective defense.
"If
bombers attacked us or warships bombarded us, we would fire back. Striking a
country lobbing missiles at us is no different," said Itsunori Onodera, a
former defense minister who heads a ruling Liberal Democratic Party committee
looking at how Japan can defend against the North Korean missile threat.
"Technology has advanced and the nature of conflict has changed."
For decades, Japan has been stretching the limits of its
post-war, pacifist constitution. Successive governments have said Tokyo has the
right to attack enemy bases overseas when the enemy's intention to attack Japan
is evident, the threat is imminent and there are no other defense options.
But
while previous administrations shied away from acquiring the hardware to do so,
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's LDP has been urging him to consider the step.
"It
is time we acquired the capability," said Hiroshi Imazu, the chairman of
the LDP's policy council on security. "I don’t know whether that would be
with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles or even the F-35 (fighter bomber), but
without a deterrence North Korea will see us as weak."
The
idea has faced stiff resistance in the past but the latest round of North
Korean tests means Japan may move more swiftly to enact a tougher defense
policy.
“We
have already done the ground work on how we could acquire a strike capability,”
said a source with knowledge of Japan's military planning. He asked not to be
identified because of the sensitivity of the issue.
Any
weapon Japan acquired with the reach to hit North Korea would also put parts of
China's eastern seaboard within range of Japanese munitions for the first time.
That would likely anger Beijing, which is strongly protesting the deployment of
the advanced U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile
system in South Korea.
"China
has missiles that can hit Japan, so any complaints it may have are not likely
to garner much sympathy in the international community," said Onodera.
GROWING THREATS
Currently,
more than three missiles at one would be too many for Japan's already stretched
ballistic missile defense to cope with, another source familiar with Japan’s
capability said.
One
serious concern for Japan is North Korea's development of solid fuel systems
demonstrated last month that will allow it to conceal preparations for missile
strikes because it no longer needs fuel its missiles just prior to firing.
That
test also demonstrated a cold launch, with the rocket ejected from its launcher
before engine ignition, minimizing damage to the mobile launch pads. Japanese
officials also noted that the launch truck was equipped with tracks rather than
wheels, allowing it to hide off road.
North
Korea says its weapons are needed to defend against the threat of attack from
the United States and South Korea, which it is still technically at war with.
Japan
is already improving its ballistic missile defenses with longer-range, more
accurate sea-based missiles on Aegis destroyers in the Sea of Japan and from
next month will start a $1 billion upgrade of its ground-based PAC-3 Patriot
batteries.
Also
under consideration is a land-based version of the Aegis system or the THAAD
system.
Those
changes, however, will take years to complete and may not be enough to keep
pace with rocket technology advances by Pyongyang, the sources said.
A
quicker option would be for Japan to deploy ground-to-ground missiles to defend
against an attack on its Yonaguni island near Taiwan fired from bases on
Japanese territory several hundred kilometers to the east. A missile with that
range could also hit sites in North Korea.
Japan
could also buy precision air launched missiles such as Lockheed Martin Corp's
extended-range Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) or the
shorter-range Joint Strike missile designed by Norway's Kongsberg Defence
Aerospace AS for the F-35 fighter jet.
But
with limited capability to track mobile launchers, some Japanese officials
still fear any strike would leave North Korea with enough rockets to retaliate
with a mass attack.
"A
strike could be justified as self defense, but we have to consider the response
that could provoke," said another LDP lawmaker, who asked not to be
identified.
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