Sunday, August 2, 2020

Election 2020 Update for 2 August 2020

2016 Presidential Election Actual Results

Above is the 2016 electoral result 

Reader comment: (It's Not just being ahead in the polls, the Demoncrats are working on Voter Fraud and a Coup.
Plus, we Have to Win the people back from their Deranged Demonic Marxist, Muslim Anti-America & Family HateAnti-Christian & Jewish Hate, etc. By Countering their Endless Lies with the Truth. And Reforming the Corrupted Extremely Subversive Schools, Colleges, Churches, Media, Hollywood, Government, etc.......J
D Alex on Twitter: "Trump Got 91% Chance Of Winning The ...


In 2016 Trump received 306 electoral votes. (See map above) Barring a "yuge" catastrophe I believe Trump will add the states below to his 2016 electoral count.

In 2016 Trump received 4% of the independent vote. A recent sampling of registered independent voters reflected that Trump was carrying 8% of registered indepent voters in the following states: Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Maine and Pennsylvania. Consequently I feel this 8% is  "Yuge" for Trump and I have added Colorado to Trump's electoral vote tally.

Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth, who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996, said “The Primary Model gives Trump a 91% chance of winning in November.” Norpoth’s model, which he curated in 1996, calculates the winning candidate based on early presidential nominating contests and placing an emphasis on how much enthusiasm candidates are able to generate early in the nominating process.
“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Norpoth said.
The model places Biden at a significant disadvantage due to losses in his party’s first two presidential nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire. The professor added the model, which predicted Trump’s win in 2016, worked partially by discounting opinion surveys.
“Polls and poll-based forecasts all handed Hillary Clinton a certain victory,” Norpoth said.
A number of polls have Biden well in the lead. RealClearPolitics gave Biden a 7.8% lead over Trump in June, a more than 2% gain since May. FiveThirtyEight has Biden’s lead within a tight band of 8.9 to 9.6 percentage points since mid-June.

However, in Norpoth’s model, not only will the president be re-elected, but he will expand his margin in the electoral college from 304 electoral votes in 2016 to 362 in 2020.
South Carolina Prediction | 2020 Presidential Election - YouTube

North Carolina Prediction | 2020 Presidential Election - YouTube
                
ELECTORAL VOTES
2016 electoral vote                            306
Colorado                                                 9 newly added
Oregon                                                    7
Nevada                                                    6
New Mexico                                            5
Minnesota                                             10
Maine                                                      4
New Hampshire                                      4


Total                                                    351       

Most importantly, though, is physical evidence. The signage on lawns and rallies of 2016 pointed to the outcome. Even today, with the lack of massive rallies, a state like Pennsylvania shows "Trump" signs spread throughout the state. Traveling through the state recently, a friend of mine saw a massive amount of "Trump" signs. He saw exactly ONE Biden sign. You read that correctly. As always with most states, the Dems hope to overwhelm the rest of the states by dubious turnout in the cities.


Oklahoma Prediction | 2020 Presidential Election - YouTube

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