July 18, 2022 "Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis "

 

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhM4oZXnMdc

Reader comments:

Pushing forward sooner then expected to the north and south, as well as making sure donesk will be relieved of shelling (longer shot for this goal). I don't think of a "huge cauldron", but down the road it might be. Kharkiv to Nikolaiev is a strike to let us on suspend thinking. What do you think?

 

According to one source, an Azov battalion was moved to a Chervonyi Molochar between Slavyansk and Mykolaivka. There may some difference in the sources whether Kraken, Azov or both was moved to that area.

 

Russia yesterday opened a new front in Glushkovsky district, north of Sumy. This is a genius move by Russia. Sumy itself is not of the highest value. And the advance is not about a big new Russian offensive - yet. But this is about Russia (re) establishing a foothold only 240 km from Kiev, close to the M02 highway leading directly to Kiev. Russia can anytime expand its renewed foothold near Sumy into a full advance against Kiev. Russia can also combine such a new Kiev-advance with existing operations only 150 km away in Kharkov, and Donbas. At a time where Donbas is about to fall to Russia, Russia puts an implicit threat on the whole East-side of the Dnepr river. All the way from Donbas to the Dnepr river and up to the North of Ukraine. Ukraine is now pressed further, to divert significant amounts of their dwindling military forces in Donbas and north of Kherson to strengthen the Sumy area, the North - and Kiev itself.

Russia's new front near Sumy is clearly a consequence of Russia's starting its third phase of the war in Ukraine after the taking of Lysychansk. A few days ago, Russia once again adjusted its military approach to the war in Ukraine. Put shortly, Russia now expands the offensive to more locations. Russia's offensive in the Siversk direction has the past two weeks been expanded with offensives on Soledar, Bakhmut, and all the way down to Svitlodarsk. To build on that, Russia has in the past few days been intensifying attacks on Ukraine around Avdiivka, in Zaporozhzhia region, and North of Kherson. The frontline from Kharkov down to Kherson is around 1,000 km. In Phase 2, Russia was concentrating its pressure one main area at a time - Rubizhne, then Popasnaya, then Severodonetsk, then Zolote, and then Lysychansk. Russia is now not only pressing Ukraine nearly everywhere around the 1,000 km front at the same time. With the advance north of Sumy, Russia enormously expands the total length of the line of operations with around 200 more kilometers. Ukraine now faces has an enormous line of operations of 1,200 km. In comparison, the entire possible frontline from Szczecin at the Baltic Sea in the north of Germany/Poland and down to the Adriatic Sea at Venice, Italy is only 900 km. Russia has demonstrated a military capability to manage and win on a 1,200 frontline - NATO has not. The number of capable forces which Ukraine has left to hold against Russia on these 1,200 km are dwindling - fast. Worse than that for Ukraine. Russia is actively destroying Ukrainian movements of forces, and exploiting new weak points, as Ukraine is pressed to take forces from somewhere to put out new fires arising. Russia has also intelligently prepared this new Phase 3 by reconstructing the whole railway, road, and logistics system at Russia's disposal from Kherson to Donbas and into Russia - and thus also up to Sumy. In sum - Russia is not only vastly superior in force everywhere on the 1,200 km line of operations - Russia is also vastly more mobile and better supplied. Russia's Phase 3 strategy is to destroy Ukraine's military everywhere - and to put Kiev off balance with more pressures and more dispersed threats, to exploit the weaknesses of Ukraine as they arise. And prepare to take Southern and Central Ukraine - and march on Kiev. It is not just about taking Donbas. It is beyond destroying Ukraine's main forces - which is also happening. It is the sharpening of the sword for the death blow to all Ukraine.

Due to intrinsic tactical complexities, the Russians are retreating forward while our boys are tactically advancing backwards "Zelensky"