Wednesday, December 9, 2020

Watchman Report Dec. 9, 2020 "Non-Polling Metrics"

As most of my readers will recall from the Spring of 2020 to voting day 2020 your watchman predicted that Trump would win the election by a landslide. I predicted Trump would get over 300 electoral votes. I also thought President Trump had a chance to carry New York & Oregon. I saw law & order as one of the key issues in the 2020 election & President Trump owned that issue.

I used non-polling metrics (NPM) to pick President Trump to win in 2016. I did not base my analysis upon any polling but rather NPM and the work of Professor Helmut Norpoth. In fact, I emailed Professor Norpoth one week before the election and asked him if mail-in voting would make him change his election prediction and wrote "No, absolutely not".


Now enter Patrick Basham, director, Democracy Institute. who told Mark Levine that the 2020 election was quote "a carefully contribed &  orchestrated fraud." 

Mr. Basham noted that President Trump increased his vote from 2016 to 2020 by 20%. No incumbent President in U.S. history lost re-election who increased his vote total. Moreover, all the mainstream polls were totally wrong in showing "Sleepy Joe" Biden ahead. 

So what are non-polling metrics (NPM)?

NPM include the following:

1. Increase in political party registrations. Republicans killed the Democrats in registering new voters and getting Democrats to "walk away".

2. A look at the number of votes a candidate receives in the primaries. "Sleepy Joe" did very poorly in the primaries.

3. Enthusiasm for the candidate. President Trump had this with his boat parades, campaign rallies and "yuge" interstate parades. Biden was lucky to draw 30 people to his rallies. 

4. Social & media following. No one tweets or socially interacts like President Trump. He was a political innovator in tweeting. 

5. Broadcast & big media ratings.

6. Voter on-line searches. 

7. Number of small donors. President Trump has a vast army of small donors. 

8. Number of gambling bets for the candidate. 

In every NPM President Trump beat "Sleepy Joe" except one. The Democrats selected the best cheater they possible could. Someone who knew had to steal elections. I am being sarcastic, there is no such NPM. 

Moreover every NPM had to go wrong for President Trump to lose the election & they clearly did not.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1_20srq5Fw

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/2020-presidential-election-joe-biden-donald-trump-patrick-basham-mark-levin



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