Saturday, August 22, 2020

2020 Election Update Trump Carrying New York and Hawaii!

 



               

ELECTORAL VOTES
Trump 2016 electoral vote                            306
Trump leads in New York                                 29
Trump leads in Hawaii                                        4
Trump Total 2020                                            362
"Sleepy Joe"                                                    176

It’s going to take quite an effort from Joe Biden to get himself into the Oval Office, and the latest news this week seems to be trending in the wrong direction for the Democrat.

Biden has been a bit of a mess on the campaign trail.  Not only has he been full of gibberish, (which is sadly not all that unusual for the former veep), but he has also displayed one heck of a temper.  During one town hall earlier in the campaign, Biden referred to an attendee as “fat” and “a damn liar”.  Just weeks later, he insulted a female voter by calling her a “lying dog-faced pony soldier”.

Now, with 73 days to go until the election, Biden has now lost a major endorsement.

The National Association of Police Organizations (NAPO) endorsed President Donald Trump for president on Wednesday, abandoning their previous support of former Vice President Joe Biden.

“Our endorsement recognizes your steadfast and very public support for our men and woman on the front lines, especially during this time of unfair and inaccurate opprobrium being directed at our members by so many,” the letter from NAPO President Michael McHale read.

Making the matter more embarrassing is the fact that NAPO had endorsed the Obama-Biden ticket in both 2008 and 2012. The organization did not choose a candidate in 2016’s race.

Helmut Norpoth stated that “People have forgotten how Joe Biden did in New Hampshire,” said Norpoth. “He was terrible. He got 8.4 percent of the vote, which is unbelievable for a candidate with any aspirations of being president.”

So was there anything any of the Democrats could have done this year to get in a better position, or was it Donald Trump’s election to win or lose?

“What the Democrats should have done if they were really serious about beating Trump would have been to rally around one candidate right from the start and not have a protracted battle in which people get wounded,” Norpoth said. “They needed to pick one person and have everybody else take a pass. That’s the only way I could see that my model would have worked in their favor.”

Norpoth, who has studied election primaries going back to 1912, is confident of the math behind his model. While some might suspect that unusual circumstances — e.g., the COVID-19 pandemic and the civil unrest in the wake of the George Floyd killing — might have an unpredictable effect on the election results, Norpoth said those crises have no bearing on his projection.

“My prediction is what I call ‘unconditional final,’” he said. “It does not change. It’s a mathematical model based on things that have happened. The presidential election of 2016 has happened, the primary results are in. I can add in the results of more primaries, but even those numbers have happened and can’t change either.”

Norpoth also scoffed when asked to comment on the argument that the Trump presidency has been widely described as being “unlike any previous presidency.”

“Every president is unique, and I think people get a little carried away with that description,” he said. “Obama was the first Black president. Is that not unique? If Hillary Clinton had won in 2016, she would have been the first woman president. Is that not unique? I grant that Trump is in many ways a very special kind of character, but I think we also tend to exaggerate that.”

One model change Norpoth has made for the upcoming election has been to focus on the Electoral College.

“Now I predict straight to the Electoral College,” he said. “I’ve never done that before, but I made an adjustment because of the mismatch we had in 2016, and I’m prepared to see Trump lose the popular vote again. So this prediction is entirely about the electoral votes.”

At the core, said Norpoth, it’s just math.

“Everybody thinks Trump is going to go down in flames, and here I am predicting with almost total certainty that he’s going to win,” he concluded. “It seems crazy. But it’s not.”

Norpoth’s record in the twenty-five of the last 27 U.S presidential elections can vouch for that.


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