By Pepe Escobar
Watchman comment: I think we would be foolish not to think Israel, Saudi Arabia, other Sunni states and the U.S. support the demonstrations against the Iranian government and that they would welcome regime change in Iran. This would remove the Shia threat to the Sunni world. Long term unemployed youth can be a potential threat to any government, especially in the Middle East and Persia.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani
did the right thing going on television and at least acknowledging popular
anger over hard economic times. Inflation is high at 12% but down from 40% at
the start of Rouhani’s first term. And the recent increase in fuel and food
prices by up to 40% has hardly helped.
That was
part of Team Rouhani’s 2018 budget, which cuts subsidies for the poor – a key
feature of the previous Ahmadinejad administration.
Then there
is youth unemployment, which hovers around the 30% mark. Similar figures
recently came out of Spain, a member of the European Union. Of course, that
explains why the bulk of the protesters are under 25 from working class
backgrounds.
What
Rouhani should have explained to Iranians in detail is the direct consequences
of hard economic times and
United States sanctions, which are affecting the country.
These
were coupled with financial threats against western firms now back in business,
or at least contemplating opening up operations, in Iran.
Rouhani did promise after
signing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the Iran nuclear
deal, in the Austrian capital of Vienna in 2015 that it would lead to more jobs
and stimulate the economy.
While
that has not been the case, legitimate protests singling out economic problems
have never gone away. In fact, they have been part of the Iranian picture for
decades.
If
we consider the Islamic Republic experiment, a sort of “theocracy with
democratic characteristics,” the most striking element is how deeply rooted it
is in the country.
I
learned this during my many trips to Iran and it has a great deal to do with
the basij, or
voluntary militias. They have permeated all aspects of social life from unions
to student bodies and civil servant groups.
In
this respect, there is a strong similarity to China, where the Communist Party
is embedded in the very fabric of society.
Talking
to young people in places such as Kashan or Mashhad showed me how solid the
popular base was behind the Islamic Republic experiment. It was certainly more
thought-provoking than listening to ayatollahs in Qom.
Still,
what is happening now in Iran is that legitimate protests related to economic
hardships have been hijacked by the usual suspects in a move to influence the
minority. After all, Rouhani’s administration is comparatively liberal
compared to the populist Ahmadinejad government.
So,
what we have is a concerted attempt to turn legitimate protests into a
“revolutionary” movement with the aim of bringing about a regime change. In all
practical purposes, this would be civil war.
Well,
it will simply not work. Anyone familiar with Iran knows the country’s civil
society is far too sophisticated to fall into such a crude and obvious trap.
For
a clear take on the foreign influence angle, you should watch Professor
Mohammad Marandi, of the University of Tehran, an academic of absolute
integrity, arguing with a former BBC employee on the Qatari-owned Al Jazeera
television network. That video is below.
Indeed, what is certain is that
foreign elements are acting as provocateurs to influence the protests. This
“whole world is watching” tone is meant to intimidate Tehran’s response.
Yet
there has to be a crackdown against the violence as Rouhani strongly hinted.
Imagine the police response if the level of violence seen on Iranian streets
was happening in France or Germany?
Regime
change is unlikely but what is in play is setting the scene for a further
renewal of economic sanctions against Iran. Possibly, in this case by the EU.
Hopefully, it will not fall into this trap.
Anyway,
Tehran is already gearing up to increase business across Eurasia through
China’s new Silk Roads, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Eurasia Economic
Union.
In
the end, it is up to Team Rouhani to be creative in alleviating the burden on
the economic front.
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