Are Revolutions Spontaneous? ¿Son espontáneas las revoluciones?

As you know, revolutions and civil wars are rarely spontaneous. They are planned and orchestrated. At the US Army War College officers study the requirements of a successful revolution. It won’t surprise you that the principles are the same whether it is an Arab Spring event or a South American uprising. 

Every revolution has generally the same “players.”

The Philosophers/Idealists: These people truly believe in their cause---even if the cause is misguided. These people are often eloquent (and persuasive) writers. They create the “moral foundation” for the revolution. Some revolutions are noble (think 1776). Most are not.

The Leaders: These are men and women who can rally the crowd to “the cause”, whether they, themselves, believe in the cause or not. They typically have no power; but they desperately want it. Some revolutionary leaders are principled (think George Washington), but most are driven by pride, ego, and a desire to rule.

The Communicators/Media: Every revolution needs a vehicle to transmit the message to the larger audience. In the not so distant past, newspapers and pamphlets served this purpose; today it is obviously electronic. These players take the Idealist’s message and package/glamorize it to the masses. Convincing disaffected people they are being wronged, and that the new leader/system will improve things, is the goal.

The Organizers: These people are detail-oriented and enjoy the challenge of orchestrating “history changing events.” Always in the background, they pride themselves on being indispensable to the cause. They expect praise, significant remuneration, and positions of power for their efforts. 

The Resource Providers: I should have put this group first. As the old saying goes, “Amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics.” This group provides the logistics of money, arms, connections, supplies, equipment, trainers, etc. They are the true power behind the revolution. Without these wealthy, powerful and anonymous players, all revolutions fail. Think George Soros (and his team) in this role. (As an aside, despite what your readers think, very few Americans know who Soros is.)

The Opportunists: This is the wild-card element. They are not strategic thinkers. They are not committed to “the cause.” They are not under the sway of Leaders, Organizers, or the Media. They are cynics who see a chance for short-term personal gain and they do not want to let any opportunity slip by. They are the thorn in the side of all the groups named above. Opportunists can sidetrack the revolutionary message and derail years of preparation and effort. 

So, with that as background, how is today different? 

Antifa was a beta-test by the Resource Providers to see if they could do something not done before-----control the Opportunists.  Knowing the Opportunists just wanted flat screen TVs, a new car, or the chance to be violent without consequence, the Resource Providers sought to bring them to heel. 
Rather than leave things to chance, why not identify Opportunists in advance? Then, why not recruit them, equip them, train them, and even pay them? You could thereby control the previously uncontrollable part of a successful revolution. Antifa was an attempt at this. 

Remember, today’s revolutionary-players knew of the hippie/druggie riots of the 1960’s and 1970’s. That debacle turned a generation of Americans against the so-called “peace movement” and initiated a conservative backlash thereby setting back the anti-American cause by decades. Ever since, the revolutionary crowd has been patiently, quietly, and effectively pushing back toward their goal. Based on their latest moves, I believe they are convinced the groundwork for bolder efforts is now in place. 

So far, the results of their Antifa experiment are mixed. Antifa’s tactics clearly went too far, and they were clumsy in their execution. The Alt-media and Internet bloggers identified the duplicity and prevarications of the “spontaneous uprisings” against President Trump, Civil War statues, or white privilege. The media mantra had little effect in portraying Antifa in any sympathetic light. 

Nonetheless, the Antifa-Opportunists did not derail the greater movement. The media’s efforts were not totally in vain. America’s cultural/racial/social divisions were deepened via the constant divisive messaging. The left’s efforts were especially effective in the eyes of poor minorities and privileged elites. Just note the NFL player national anthem protests as evidence thereof. 

With the Antifa lessons learned, the anti-American revolutionary planners are already adapting. Antifa is clearly being dumped, but a new (more “reasonable”) group will soon emerge. The media messages will change, and so will the leadership. The end goal of dividing, and hence destroying, America remains, however, the same. But now the ground is a little more fertile. 

Divide and conquer is an ancient strategy. It is still effective. It is happening now. Shining a light on it is the first response to turning back the assault. 

Every revolution needs a trigger. The most successful trigger is hunger. Citizens will put up with all kinds of government/leadership abuse; that is, until they can no longer eat. The Arab Spring uprisings started when food costs consumed 55%-60% of a worker’s take-home pay. When you control the food, you control the timing of the revolution. 

Don’t forget there is a huge spiritual element to all of this.