The Man Who Predicted $30 Oil and Other Economic News For Jan. 26, 2016

Early last year, Mark Yusko, pictured above, founder and CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, predicted crude oil would approach $30 a barrel and deflation would become the main economic headwind for the developed world, rather than the inflation with which the market had been obsessing about.

Yusko, whose dour market views were prescient, doesn't have any brighter view of economic or market conditions now.

The easing of sanctions on Iran and Saudi Arabia's reluctance to cut production are among the factors that will continue to crush energy prices.

"There's no chance we're going to get any spike, upward movement in oil. It's not going to happen," Yusko said during his annual "Bold Predictions" talk on Monday afternoon at the Inside ETFs conference in Hollywood, Florida.

Yusko also projects a "messy bankruptcy" for at least one commodity company. He pointed specifically to mining and commodities trading firm Glencore (London Stock Exchange: GLEN-GB), which has seen its London-traded shares fall nearly 70 percent in the last year amid sliding commodities prices and debt concerns. 

Yusko said a recession is coming "as sure as the sun rises." He just can't decide in which of the world's major economies a recession surprise will first arrive.

Either the United States or Europe may fall into recession in 2016, he said, with his pessimism about the U.S. economic outlook predicated on declining corporate profits and a manufacturing sector contraction, which indicate a wider slowdown.

Yusko also echoed comments made at the Inside ETFs conference by influential bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital, who criticized the Federal Reserve — not for the first time — for raising interest rates in December.

"Maybe the Fed has actually lost control," Yusko said.

The European Central Bank's negative interest-rate policy elicited this comment from the manager: "I'm not sure what that's a sign of, but it's not good." 

People are buying large quantities of Gold. We're not even a month into the new year and so far 2016 has already proven to be quite interesting. With the equities markets in decline, there has been renewed interest in gold and silver investing. Watch Mike Maloney's video below. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KO8ZgbVDudw