Watchman on the Wall

Tensions are rising because the Chinese navy becoming more aggressive in asserting its territorial claims in the South China Sea. The U.S. Navy has another reason to be deeply concerned about the Chinese navy.

Details have emerged about a "kill weapon" developed by the Chinese to target and destroy U.S. aircraft carriers. A recent Chinese report provides a description of an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) that can strike carriers and other U.S. vessels at a range of 2000km. The range of the modified Dong Feng 21(DF21) missile is significant in that it covers the areas that are likely hot zones for future confrontations between U.S. and Chinese navies.The size of the missile enables it to carry a warhead big enough to inflict significant damage on a large vessel. It could destroy a U.S. super carrier in one strike. The DF21 employs a complex guidance system, low radar signature and a maneuverability that makes its flight path unpredictable. Hence, the odds have increased that it can evade tracking systems to hit its target. It is estimated that the missile can travel at mach 10 and reach its maximum range of 2000km in less than 12 minutes.Supporting the missile is a network of satellites, radar and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) that can locate U.S. ships and then guide the weapon to hit moving targets.

The DF21 has been a topic of discussion within national defense circles for quite some time; however, the fact that information is now coming from Chinese sources indicates that the DF21 is operational. Historically, the Chinese rarely mention weapons projects unless they are well beyond the test stages. If it is operational it marks the first time a ASBM has been successfully developed. Ships currently have no defense against an ASBM.

U.S. Navy officials appear to view the development of the DF21 and Chinese naval build-up as a tangible threat. After spending the last decade placing an emphasis on building a fleet that could operate in shallow waters, the U.S. Navy seems to have changed its strategy over the past several months to focus on improving the capabilities of its deep-sea fleet and developing ASBM defenses.

In typical U.S. Defense Department quirky and almost unfathomable language analyst Raymond Pritchett wrote in the U.S. Naval Institute blog: "The Navy's reaction is telling, because it essentially equals a radical change in direction based on information that has created a panic inside the bubble. For a major military service to panic due to a new weapon system, clearly a mission kill weapon system, either suggests the threat is legitimate or the leadership of the Navy is legitimately unqualified. There really aren't many gray spaces in evaluating the reaction by the Navy…the data tends to support the legitimacy of the threat."

China has been expanding its navy to better exert itself in disputed maritime regions. A recent show of strength in early March led to a confrontation with an unarmed U.S. ship in international waters.