First the good news: bird flu is becoming less deadly. Now the bad: scientists fear that this is the very thing that could make the virus more able to cause a pandemic that would kill hundreds of millions of people. This paradox, emerging from Egypt, the most recent epicenter of the disease threatens to increase the disease's ability to spread from person to person by helping it achieve the crucial mutation in the virus which could turn it into the greatest plague since the Black Death.
Last year the British Government identified the bird-flu virus, codenamed H5N1, as the biggest threat facing the country, with the potential to kill up to 750,000 Britons.
The World Health Organization (WHO) will investigate a change in the pattern of the disease in Egypt, the most seriously affected country outside Asia. Although infections have been on the rise this year, with three more reported this month, they have almost all been in children under the age of three, while 12 months ago it was mainly adults and older children who were affected. The infections have been much milder than usual. The disease normally kills more than half of those affected; all of the 11 Egyptians so far infected this year are still alive. Experts say that these developments make it more likely that the virus will spread. Ironically, its very virulence has provided an important safeguard. It did not get much chance to infect other people when it killed its victims swiftly, but now it has much more of a chance to mutate and be passed on.
The WHO fears that this year's rise in infections among small children, without similar cases being seen in older people, raises questions about whether adults are being infected but not falling ill. Adults could be symptom less carriers of the disease. Its investigation will see if this is happening by testing the blood of people who may have been in contact with infected birds, but who have not themselves become sick.
John Jabbour, who works with WHO in Cairo, said, "There is something strange happening in Egypt. Why are children getting infected and not adults? Jabbour said that if the research did find such cases they would be the first to be discovered anywhere in the world. Though he stressed that there was still no evidence of the disease passing from person to person, other experts are also becoming alarmed.
Professor Robert Webster, of St Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee, the world's leading authority on the disease, said, this issue" should receive "maximum attention, I hope to hell they are wrong. If this damn thing becomes less pathogenic, it will become more transmissible."
Professor John Oxford, of Queen Mary, University of London, said that any evidence that H5N1 was becoming less deadly would be the greatest cause for concern because then the disease would have the ability to spread.Even a much less virulent strain of the virus could result in a devastating pandemic. Studies show that an outbreak that killed as few as 5 per cent of those it infected could still cause hundreds of millions of deaths around the world.
Matthew 24:5-11
5Some of his disciples were remarking about how the temple was adorned with beautiful stones and with gifts dedicated to God. But Jesus said,
6"As for what you see here, the time will come when not one stone will be left on another; every one of them will be thrown down."
7"Teacher," they asked, "when will these things happen? And what will be the sign that they are about to take place?"
8He replied: "Watch out that you are not deceived. For many will come in my name, claiming, 'I am he,' and, 'The time is near.' Do not follow them.
9When you hear of wars and revolutions, do not be frightened. These things must happen first, but the end will not come right away."
10Then he said to them: "Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.
11There will be great earthquakes, famines and pestilences in various places, and fearful events and great signs from heaven.
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